March 27, 2026 — As the second quarter of 2026 approaches, the domestic stainless steel coil market is undergoing a fierce tug-of-war between “cost drivers” and “weak demand.” Driven by tighter nickel ore quotas in Indonesia and geopolitical factors pushing up shipping costs, raw material prices for nickel and chromium have continued to rise, establishing a solid cost floor for stainless steel coil prices. However, weak demand from the end-user construction sector and high social inventories continue to act as a ceiling, limiting the scope for price rebounds. Industry analysts point out that in the short term, stainless steel coil prices will maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern characterized by a “floor below and a ceiling above,” and recommend that downstream enterprises adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and operating with low inventory.”
I. Current Price Situation: 304 Cold-Rolled Coils Stabilize at the 14,400 Yuan Mark, with Clear Support from Cost Inversion
According to market monitoring data, as of March 26, the mainstream price of Hongwang 304 cold-rolled coils (2.0mm) in the Wuxi market remained around 14,500 yuan/ton, while similar products in the Foshan market were quoted in the range of 14,350–14,500 yuan/ton. Although steel mills significantly increased production schedules in March, spot prices did not experience a sharp decline, primarily due to cost inversion.
“Currently, the integrated cash cost for private-sector 304 cold-rolled steel has risen above 14,400 yuan/ton, and some mills using externally sourced high-nickel iron are even operating at a loss,” said a procurement manager at a metal materials company in Jinan. The strength of raw material prices has given mills a strong incentive to hold prices, limiting the scope for significant price declines.
II. Driving Factors: Indonesian Policies and Geopolitical Tensions Fuel the “Double Strength of Nickel and Chromium”
The core driver of this market cycle stems from tight supply of upstream raw materials, which directly impacts the cost-pricing logic for stainless steel coils.
Nickel Ore Supply Crisis: As the world’s leading nickel ore supplier, Indonesia has seen slow progress in approving 2026 RKAB (mining quotas) and a reduction in total allocations, leading to a sustained rise in domestic ore premiums. Compounded by a slowdown in mining activities during Ramadan, circulating nickel ore supplies have significantly decreased, pushing the price of high-nickel pig iron up to 1,100–1,120 yuan per nickel
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Rising Ferrochrome Costs: The power crisis in South Africa and export controls in Zimbabwe have driven up chromite prices. Currently, the spot price of chromite at Tianjin Port has risen to 60.5 yuan per ton-degree, while high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia is quoted at 8,600–8,900 yuan per 50-base ton, further squeezing profit margins for stainless steel coils
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III. Supply-Demand Imbalance: Slow Inventory Drawdown, Construction Sector Demand Under Pressure
Despite strong cost support, the “weak reality” on the demand side remains severe. Data shows that although national stainless steel social inventories have been declining for three consecutive weeks, the total volume remains at a high level of 1.1274 million tons, with the pace of inventory drawdown remaining sluggish
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Supply Pressure: Domestic crude steel production plans for March are projected to reach 3.6795 million tons, a significant month-on-month increase of 36.53%. Of this, production plans for the 300 series amount to 1.9008 million tons, up 44.07% month-on-month. The concentrated resumption of production by steel mills following the Spring Festival has intensified supply pressure in the market
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Demand Diversification: In the home appliance sector, demand for 300-series cold-rolled coils has shown some recovery, driven by the “Two New” policies (large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins). However, demand in the construction, decoration, and real estate sectors remains weak, characterized by “weak current conditions and low expectations,” making it difficult to effectively stimulate consumption of stainless steel coils.
IV. Market Outlook and Procurement Recommendations
Regarding the second-quarter market outlook, market institutions generally hold a “cautiously bullish” stance. Mysteel analysis suggests that amid the interplay between cost support and macroeconomic uncertainties (such as Fed policy and the Middle East situation), the benchmark 304 cold-rolled coil contract is expected to trade within the range of 14,200–14,800 yuan per ton.
